Calculate Run Rate (Full Year Projection) in MDX

This post explains how to create an MDX calculated member that will take a value from the cube and project it forward to the end of the year. This provides a simple mechanism for calculating what your expected total will be at year end, based upon current performance.

To do this more accurately you should use time series data mining models in SSAS and use DMX expressions to query the results, but this method is very simple and requires little effort, and will be pretty accurate so long as the data you’re modelling is fairly linear. Please note though that the more cyclical and seasonal your data is the less effective this will be.

The basic idea is that we take what we have done so far (i.e. year to date sales), look at how far through the year we are, and extrapolate the value of future months (or days/weeks/etc.) based upon values so far.

i.e. If we’re at March month end and we’ve sold 100 widgets so far this year, we’re 1/4 of the way through the year so we multiply 100 by 4 and get a prejected yearly total of 400.

This chart shows the concept of what we’re doing, and shows the full year prejections calculated in March (with 3 months of available data) and June (6 months of data). The projections obviously get more accurate the further you are through the year.

One of the points to note is that when creating a calculation like this, based upon a time dimension, the calculation should always work with any level of the dimension hierarchy selected. i.e. The user shouldn’t care whether they’re looking at a month, week, quarter or a day, the calculation should always work the same. To achieve this we simply use the .currentmember of the time hierarchy.

The following examples are based upon projecting the Internet Sales Amount measure found within the SQL Server 2008 Adventure Works DW sample cube.

Step 1 – What are our total sales so far this year?

MDX helpfully provides us with the YTD function which takes care of this for us.

  MEMBER [Measures].[YTD Sales] AS
    AGGREGATE(
      YTD([Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember)
      ,[Measures].[Internet Sales Amount])

This takes the current member of the Calendar hierarchy, and creates a set of all dates before it (this year) using YTD. It then aggregates (in this case sums) the Internet Sales Amount for all of these dates to calculate YTD Sales.

Step 2 – Which period are we in?

Here we’ll use the same YTD function to create a set of all dates so far this year, but in this case we’ll count the number of resulting members. Note that because we’re using the .CurrentMember of the hierarchy, it doesn’t matter if we’re looking at a date, week or month, the MDX will work. i.e. If we’re looking at 21 Jan it will return 21. If we’re looking at Q3 it will return 3, August will return 8 etc.

  MEMBER [Measures].[CurPeriod] AS
    COUNT(
      YTD([Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember)
      ,INCLUDEEMPTY)

Step 3 – How many periods are in the year?

If we coded this to only work with months then we could hard code this to 12 however we need to keep it generic to all levels of the hierarchy. So, we have to count all the cousins of the current time member [within this year]. Unfortunately there isn’t a Cousins function in MDX, and Siblings will only return other members within the same parent. i.e. siblings of May 4th would include May 1 through to May 31. To get around this we find the year of the current member by using the Ancestor function.

  ANCESTOR([Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember
  , [Date].[Calendar].[Calendar Year])

Then we find all of the descendants of the year, at the same level of the hierarchy (week/day/etc.) as the current member. We can then take a count as before.

  MEMBER [Measures].[TotalPeriods] AS
    COUNT(
      DESCENDANTS(
        ANCESTOR([Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember
          ,[Date].[Calendar].[Calendar Year])
        ,[Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember.level)
      ,INCLUDEEMPTY)

Step 4 – Calculate the Run Rate

Calculating the prejected yearly total (run rate) is then a simple calculation

  MEMBER [Measures].[Full Year Run Rate] AS
    [Measures].[YTD Sales]
    * ([Measures].[TotalPeriods]
       /[Measures].[CurPeriod])

You can then put the whole lot together and see the results…

WITH

  MEMBER [Measures].[YTD Sales] AS
    AGGREGATE(
      YTD([Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember)
      ,[Measures].[Internet Sales Amount])

  MEMBER [Measures].[CurPeriod] AS
    COUNT(
      YTD([Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember)
      ,INCLUDEEMPTY)

  MEMBER [Measures].[TotalPeriods] AS
    COUNT(
      DESCENDANTS(
        ANCESTOR([Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember
          ,[Date].[Calendar].[Calendar Year])
        ,[Date].[Calendar].CurrentMember.level)
      ,INCLUDEEMPTY)

  MEMBER [Measures].[Full Year Run Rate] AS
    [Measures].[YTD Sales]
    * ([Measures].[TotalPeriods]
       /[Measures].[CurPeriod])

SELECT
{
     [Measures].[Internet Sales Amount]
    ,[Measures].[YTD Sales]
    ,[Measures].[Full Year Run Rate]
    ,[Measures].[CurPeriod]
    ,[Measures].[TotalPeriods]
} ON 0,
{
    DESCENDANTS([Date].[Calendar].[CY 2003])
} ON 1
FROM [Direct Sales]

In my next blog I’ll be diong the same calculation in DAX for use with PowerPivot, stay tuned…

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Tags: Calculated Member, Cube, Finance, MDX, OLAP, SSAS